Game theory challenge: Can you predict human behavior? - Lucas Husted


  1. TED-Ed

    TED-EdBulan Yang lalu

    The results are in! With over 5,800 responses, the average guess was 8.96, so the correct guess for 2/3 of the average was 6. 169 people (3% of those who submitted answers) guessed the right answer. Well done, 3%ers! Thanks for playing, everyone! Keep an eye out for future game theory games.

  2. 坐這山望那山

    坐這山望那山17 hari yang lalu

    The Guess distribution is "Possion distribution ",lambda value is 1.6. Because video say "for ted audiences, average is 31. So answer is 21." Thus K0-level guess 21, 2/3 is 14. So K1-level guess 14, and so on. We can get expectation is 8.213. Very close to answer.

  3. Cibin Thomas

    Cibin Thomas18 hari yang lalu

    Hey! You forgot the results?

  4. Kurt Matteson

    Kurt Matteson21 hari yang lalu

    @Fed-cap 24 Yep, the realization that 0 is the best choice would come easier since multiplying a number by 2/3 reduces its absolute value, not necessarily its distance from the lower extreme.

  5. Anna Lialine

    Anna LialineBulan Yang lalu

    I guessed 17.

  6. Ritika Guglani

    Ritika GuglaniBulan Yang lalu

    0, always 0.

  7. Replicant 2600

    Replicant 260021 jam yang lalu

    1:32 nice

  8. Walking Charade

    Walking Charade3 hari yang lalu

    does k level reasoning factor in troll guesses. some people are not motivated to win and well say 100 just to mess with things. you also need to understand the chances of that in your sample. unlikely in a ghoul kick, possible in stocks, very likely in online polls or video games, but maybe not the ted-ed audience

  9. Blue Vaquita

    Blue Vaquita5 hari yang lalu

    why did I see eren jaeger for one of the people

  10. Chase Hughes

    Chase Hughes6 hari yang lalu

    The same conclusion could be reached without the 2/3rds part of the question, right?

  11. Gary Lu Productions

    Gary Lu Productions2 hari yang lalu

    No because people would guess different numbers without the 2/3 part of the question. The guesses would likely average at about 50. If you add the 2/3 part, you know that they would guess smaller than what they think is the average will be, so you need to guess even smaller but you do not know when to stop making smaller guesses.

  12. Aqirarin

    Aqirarin7 hari yang lalu

    So basically, Chess is a K reasoning game?

  13. histime manof

    histime manof8 hari yang lalu

    this wasn't exactly a diddler as it had no concrete answer but very good video my 2 guesses were 0 and 16 before the answer

  14. Mya RANBY

    Mya RANBY11 hari yang lalu

    i guess 87654345678987654321234567898765434567

  15. Chickenalaking

    Chickenalaking11 hari yang lalu

    >Tfw you guessed 22 >Tfw you forgot about the average

  16. T Clark

    T Clark15 hari yang lalu

    I often stop at K level i can continue to breathe

  17. Kyle1170

    Kyle117017 hari yang lalu

    Wouldnt it make more sense for the perfect logicians to choose 1, since its the whole number closest to 2/3 of the average, and 2/3 of 1 rounded is still 1?

  18. Gary Lu Productions

    Gary Lu Productions9 hari yang lalu

    No because that would basically be assuming that the average is 1.5, which is likely not going to happen.

  19. Weird Angel

    Weird Angel17 hari yang lalu

    You know how in the OG club penguin You had the card game in the dojo I would be like “So he will do fire So I will do water But he might then to snow So I’ll do fire But then he might do water-“ And it would end up that the other person would just choose fire but I wouldn’t chose water because I overthink life

  20. Nathan Cate

    Nathan Cate17 hari yang lalu

    I live in America. I NEVER expect people to be perfectly rational.

  21. Fellow Comment Scroller.

    Fellow Comment Scroller.18 hari yang lalu

    I'm so confused😂

  22. torrico :/

    torrico :/19 hari yang lalu

    I don't understand why a whole number to represent 2/3 would be another than 67

  23. Leo TheLeo

    Leo TheLeo19 hari yang lalu

    Basically Scofield vs Poseidon in prison break

  24. amazing !

    amazing !19 hari yang lalu

    I didnt understand this at all.

  25. Arun Gopinathan

    Arun Gopinathan19 hari yang lalu

    Oo i was k1....and since i'm average that means almost every1s k1 so i should be k2 and choose 22....

  26. MrMooMoo

    MrMooMoo20 hari yang lalu


  27. Marky Mark

    Marky Mark20 hari yang lalu

    I can detect my mother's and gfs behavior just by how they breathe.

  28. Shreya

    Shreya20 hari yang lalu

    Monica: They don't know that we know that they know that we know they know (Idk if I got that right)

  29. Scherzo Wahid Naiborhu

    Scherzo Wahid Naiborhu12 hari yang lalu

    Chandler: Now the messers become the messies

  30. Zachthesnivy

    Zachthesnivy20 hari yang lalu

    The results were probably tainted by many many 69s

  31. sonu agarwal

    sonu agarwal20 hari yang lalu

    15 i believe

  32. Md Imbesat Zahid

    Md Imbesat Zahid20 hari yang lalu

    Hi bro how are you ?? I would suggest you please make a video on what will happen when india , Bangladesh and Pakistan merges again (it will gain you millions of views for sure )

  33. Rosita Poulin

    Rosita Poulin21 hari yang lalu

    I guessed 12

  34. Ayusha Subba

    Ayusha Subba22 hari yang lalu

    I’m that person who always guesses 50

  35. Abhay Gupta

    Abhay Gupta22 hari yang lalu


  36. TheAsiangiga

    TheAsiangiga22 hari yang lalu

    well i am a gamer sooooooooooooo

  37. Celina Jailene

    Celina Jailene23 hari yang lalu

    This video immediately started with math so I clicked off

  38. Chukwunonso Okoro

    Chukwunonso Okoro23 hari yang lalu

    and the narrator is brilliant as always

  39. Chukwunonso Okoro

    Chukwunonso Okoro23 hari yang lalu

    beautiful animation btw

  40. Yu Chen

    Yu Chen24 hari yang lalu

    well the question itself would require the participants to not be rational. there's only one way to benefit everyone so people would naturally be sceptical of others. it is essentially a test on how little you trust people would look out for you. I believe if you change the question so it can test collaboration it would result in people helping achieve the maximum benefit for all

  41. Doctor Gradamit

    Doctor Gradamit25 hari yang lalu


  42. Cweme Soda

    Cweme Soda25 hari yang lalu

    but that’s just a theory, a game theory!

  43. Sweda A

    Sweda A25 hari yang lalu

    Mind blowing !

  44. Maruthi Macha

    Maruthi Macha25 hari yang lalu


  45. FurryEskimo

    FurryEskimo26 hari yang lalu

    The only issue I see with this k-level system is that it didn't take me 12 levels to notice the pattern and deduce that 0 *Should* be the right answer. The step that came after wasn't to make it more mathematically logical, but trying to decide how wrong everyone else was

  46. TheMeanLiberal

    TheMeanLiberal26 hari yang lalu

    Anything you want to know about Human Behavior just ask Björk 🤔

  47. nihal

    nihal26 hari yang lalu

    Which software you use for create stunning animations?

  48. Ambrose WONG

    Ambrose WONG26 hari yang lalu

    Does the knowledge of k levels mean that people who take the game are still inclined to play at k level 1/2 or will they go for the Nash equilibrium?