# Game theory challenge: Can you predict human behavior? - Lucas Husted

- 5 Nov 2019
- 319 833
- 10 924

Solve this classic game theory challenge: given integers from 0 to 100, what would the whole number closest to ⅔ of the average of all numbers guessed be?

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Given a range of integers from 0 to 100, what would the whole number closest to 2/3 of the average of all numbers guessed be? For example, if the average of all guesses is 60, the correct guess will be 40. The game is played under conditions known to game theorists as “common knowledge:” every player has the same information- they also know that everyone else does too. Lucas Husted explains.

Lesson by Lucas Husted, directed by Anton Trofimov.

Animator's website: www.antontrofimov.com

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© 2010-2019 IDreporter Tonton dan unduh video

TED-EdBulan Yang lalu

The results are in! With over 5,800 responses, the average guess was 8.96, so the correct guess for 2/3 of the average was 6. 169 people (3% of those who submitted answers) guessed the right answer. Well done, 3%ers! Thanks for playing, everyone! Keep an eye out for future game theory games.

坐這山望那山17 hari yang lalu

The Guess distribution is "Possion distribution ",lambda value is 1.6. Because video say "for ted audiences, average is 31. So answer is 21." Thus K0-level guess 21, 2/3 is 14. So K1-level guess 14, and so on. We can get expectation is 8.213. Very close to answer.

Cibin Thomas18 hari yang lalu

Hey! You forgot the results?

Kurt Matteson21 hari yang lalu

@Fed-cap 24 Yep, the realization that 0 is the best choice would come easier since multiplying a number by 2/3 reduces its absolute value, not necessarily its distance from the lower extreme.

Anna LialineBulan Yang lalu

I guessed 17.

Ritika GuglaniBulan Yang lalu

0, always 0.

Replicant 260021 jam yang lalu

1:32 nice

Walking Charade3 hari yang lalu

does k level reasoning factor in troll guesses. some people are not motivated to win and well say 100 just to mess with things. you also need to understand the chances of that in your sample. unlikely in a ghoul kick, possible in stocks, very likely in online polls or video games, but maybe not the ted-ed audience

Blue Vaquita5 hari yang lalu

why did I see eren jaeger for one of the people

Chase Hughes6 hari yang lalu

The same conclusion could be reached without the 2/3rds part of the question, right?

Gary Lu Productions2 hari yang lalu

No because people would guess different numbers without the 2/3 part of the question. The guesses would likely average at about 50. If you add the 2/3 part, you know that they would guess smaller than what they think is the average will be, so you need to guess even smaller but you do not know when to stop making smaller guesses.

Aqirarin7 hari yang lalu

So basically, Chess is a K reasoning game?

histime manof8 hari yang lalu

this wasn't exactly a diddler as it had no concrete answer but very good video my 2 guesses were 0 and 16 before the answer

Mya RANBY11 hari yang lalu

i guess 87654345678987654321234567898765434567

Chickenalaking11 hari yang lalu

>Tfw you guessed 22 >Tfw you forgot about the average

T Clark15 hari yang lalu

I often stop at K level -1....so i can continue to breathe

Kyle117017 hari yang lalu

Wouldnt it make more sense for the perfect logicians to choose 1, since its the whole number closest to 2/3 of the average, and 2/3 of 1 rounded is still 1?

Gary Lu Productions9 hari yang lalu

No because that would basically be assuming that the average is 1.5, which is likely not going to happen.

Weird Angel17 hari yang lalu

You know how in the OG club penguin You had the card game in the dojo I would be like “So he will do fire So I will do water But he might then to snow So I’ll do fire But then he might do water-“ And it would end up that the other person would just choose fire but I wouldn’t chose water because I overthink life

Nathan Cate17 hari yang lalu

I live in America. I NEVER expect people to be perfectly rational.

Fellow Comment Scroller.18 hari yang lalu

I'm so confused😂

torrico :/19 hari yang lalu

I don't understand why a whole number to represent 2/3 would be another than 67

Leo TheLeo19 hari yang lalu

Basically Scofield vs Poseidon in prison break

amazing !19 hari yang lalu

I didnt understand this at all.

Arun Gopinathan19 hari yang lalu

Oo i was k1....and since i'm average that means almost every1s k1 so i should be k2 and choose 22....

MrMooMoo20 hari yang lalu

What

Marky Mark20 hari yang lalu

I can detect my mother's and gfs behavior just by how they breathe.

Shreya20 hari yang lalu

Monica: They don't know that we know that they know that we know they know (Idk if I got that right)

Scherzo Wahid Naiborhu12 hari yang lalu

Chandler: Now the messers become the messies

Zachthesnivy20 hari yang lalu

The results were probably tainted by many many 69s

sonu agarwal20 hari yang lalu

15 i believe

Md Imbesat Zahid20 hari yang lalu

Hi bro how are you ?? I would suggest you please make a video on what will happen when india , Bangladesh and Pakistan merges again (it will gain you millions of views for sure )

Rosita Poulin21 hari yang lalu

I guessed 12

Ayusha Subba22 hari yang lalu

I’m that person who always guesses 50

Abhay Gupta22 hari yang lalu

0

TheAsiangiga22 hari yang lalu

well i am a gamer sooooooooooooo

Celina Jailene23 hari yang lalu

This video immediately started with math so I clicked off

Chukwunonso Okoro23 hari yang lalu

and the narrator is brilliant as always

Chukwunonso Okoro23 hari yang lalu

beautiful animation btw

Yu Chen24 hari yang lalu

well the question itself would require the participants to not be rational. there's only one way to benefit everyone so people would naturally be sceptical of others. it is essentially a test on how little you trust people would look out for you. I believe if you change the question so it can test collaboration it would result in people helping achieve the maximum benefit for all

Doctor Gradamit25 hari yang lalu

0

Cweme Soda25 hari yang lalu

but that’s just a theory, a game theory!

Sweda A25 hari yang lalu

Mind blowing !

Maruthi Macha25 hari yang lalu

?

FurryEskimo26 hari yang lalu

The only issue I see with this k-level system is that it didn't take me 12 levels to notice the pattern and deduce that 0 *Should* be the right answer. The step that came after wasn't to make it more mathematically logical, but trying to decide how wrong everyone else was

TheMeanLiberal26 hari yang lalu

Anything you want to know about Human Behavior just ask Björk 🤔

nihal26 hari yang lalu

Which software you use for create stunning animations?

Ambrose WONG26 hari yang lalu

Does the knowledge of k levels mean that people who take the game are still inclined to play at k level 1/2 or will they go for the Nash equilibrium?